Predictions For The 2022 Formula 1 Season
So, we've got new cars and new rules. But who's going to capitalise on this shaken up grid and make a good run for glory? Having poured over the admittedly vague data from Spain, I've drawn up these, at times wild, predictions. And yes, I set these in stone (and in audio on a podcast) after the Spanish testing. This means I knew nothing of the immediate evolutions of the sidepods or Mercedes ditching theirs entirely. We'll see how that pans out.
The Teams Standings
10th - Alfa Romeo
I can't see Alfa Romeo having a brilliant season of it. Not only will they be working on fine-tuning the C42, but they have F1 rookie Guanyu Zhou joining the team. The new setup combined with bedding in the fairly unknown quantity in Zhou could detriment the team. Maybe a point or two? But I don't see them having a competitive chassis this season, and no matter how good Bottas is, I don't think he'll be able to race around the car's shortcomings.
9th - Haas
I have a little more hope for Haas than I have had in previous years. The team's development into the chassis through last year and over the winter break will pay off. That, coupled with the settled talent of Mick Schumacher and Kevin Magnussen, could see a few points finishes, enough to at least eclipse Alfa Romeo, but I doubt they'll be challenging for anything higher than ninth in the Constructors' standings.
8th - Aston Martin
I can't see Aston Martin pulling out of their development doldrums this season. 2021 was a rough dip compared to their 2020 performance, and that is something I feel that'll reverberate into 2022. The AMR22 looks well designed, but the pace we saw in testing wasn't anything to write home about. On the odd occasion, I think we could see them jousting with Williams, but they could be straggling in a dull patch of their own.
7th - Williams
I think this could be the start of a Williams resurgence. I'm not saying we'll have Williams topping the charts in a few years, but we could see them return to being a solidly competitive mid-field team. This year's Albon and Latifi pairing looks strong, with both flourishing as mature drivers. The car looks nothing like the handful it was in previous seasons, so hopefully, we'll see them jostling into the midfield, if not grabbing onto the coattails of...
6th - Alpha Tauri
This season's Alpha Tauri looks competitive. Pierre will be starting off his full-time F1 career in 2018. This will be his fifth season in the sport. It's now or never for him to make his mark on the sport. This drive and a competitive car could see him bagging some mega points this season. Yuki will also be looking to show why he's a Red Bull junior and a likely replacement for Sergio Perez in the years to come. Both are talented and go into the season with different aspirations. It'll be exciting to see who comes out on top.
5th - Alpine
Calling places through the midfield is tricky at the best of times. The past few years have seen the middling teams packed closely together with barely a few points separating them, some almost drawing at points in the championship. Will Alpine be able to make that step up, out of the midfield and into the top tier? That awaits to be seen. Ocon is comfortable in the team with a long contract and job security, seeing him well seated. Alonso is still a bit of an unknown. He's back for a reason, but we don't quite know what that reason is. Is it for a third championship, or just to prove that he still has it? Time will tell. It's time for El Plan.
4th - McLaren
It'll be another year of 4th place for the Woking outfit. That's not to doubt the car that they've built, more a statement on how strong I think the battle will be for third place in 2022. I can see their season panning out either of two ways. Both drivers will struggle to get to grips with the car and then come good later on, or we'll see a strong and fast start from the papaya painted MCL36 that'll tail off after the summer break and see them jumped in the standings by a hard pushing...
3rd - Red Bull
... Yeah, I don't have so much hope for my local team. The boys from Milton Keynes had a strong season last year, and potentially I'm overly sceptical about that wild Adrian Newey design with the side-pods. They could just struggle and flounder a little early on as they nail down how to race the new car. I can see Max having a few issues, fighting the car too much to drive the team on, potentially being outscored by Perez early on.
2nd - Ferrari
Don, your red t-shirts, go buy a big Italian flag and join the Tifosi. I reckon this could be Ferrari's best season for quite some time. Carlos knows that his time in that scarlet seat is limited, and if he's going to make something of it, now is the time to do so. He'll be coming into this season focused and with a drive all year long akin to his passion in the final laps of the 2020 Italian GP. Charles will be doing well, but I doubt he can stand up to the blitzkrieg of podiums and points Carlos will nail down.
1st - Mercedes
Don't read into the times from Spain. While Lewis was able to lay down a hugely dominant time in the final few laps of the "test" sessions. We have no clue what his fuel load was, and he did run that lap on the softest compound going. It wasn't miles up the road from the rest of the pack but a clear shot across the bows of his rivals that he means business this season. Couple that with George Russell, who'll be looking to get his brand nailed down early on, it's looking like yet another season with a Mercedes win, but I don't think it'll be domination like we're used to.
How do those thoughts pan out with the drivers? Something a little like this.
Drivers
20 - Guanyu Zhou
It isn't always fair to ask too much of a driver in their rookie year. Especially when they are spending that rookie season in an Alfa Romeo that doesn't look like it's going to be at the sharp end of anywhere this year. However, I can see there being enough occasions where Zhou outplaces Mazepin to just about outrank him in the standings.
19 - Kevin Magnussen
Points. I'll get more into this with my next place allocation, but I wouldn't be surprised to see K-Mag bag some points in the chaos that could ensue this season. I reckon he could be more consistent across the season than Mick, but ultimately, Mick will outscore him.
18 - Mick Schumacher
I didn't say that the Haas was going to be that much better. But enough that we could see some points on the board for Schumacher this season. We were close to seeing Mick collect some points in 2021. There was a lot of strong P12/P11 performances. With 2022, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a few point-scoring performances. With the new regs and the teams battling to get things set up, there could well be a glut of chaotic races this year, favouring some of the more typical backmarkers. Hence, Schumacher points.
17 - Nicholas Latifi
Points last season; this will be his third in the sport. There was definitely an improvement from his first into his second, and if Abu Dhabi proved anything, that boy could duke it out on track if the time comes. So points are a fair shout.
16 - Valtteri Bottas
The Alfa Romeo might not be up to much this season, but he's still Valtteri Bottas. 1738 career points are a decent tally to have, and I can see a few more on the board this season. Podiums? No. A few points finishes? Feasible.
15 - Lance Stroll
I'd say this is the same argument I made for Bottas. Good driver, meh car. Stroll might do better if the Aston isn't as terrible as the Alfa. We'll have to wait and find out.
14 - Sebastian Vettel
See Lance, see Valtteri. Even if the car is dire. Seb is a good enough driver to work around it. We saw that with him basically nabbing two podiums last season, and I doubt we'll see a performance from him that is below par.
13 - Alex Albon
This will be Alex's first season back in the sport after being dropped for Checo at the end of 2020. Since then, we've seen him working as the RB test driver and having a competitive season in DTM. Fingers crossed, he's evolved nicely in that time, and we'll see a more targeted and precise driver. He's shown some brilliant moments in his times at Red Bull and Torro Rosso. Hopefully, we'll see more of that and more.
12 - Yuki Tsunoda
2021 wasn't a bad career start for Yuki, especially once he'd moved to Italy to be closer to the factory and really bed in with the team around him. His character is heartwarmingly unique. In a press interview, when asked what his aspirations were, his answer was to open a restaurant. One can hope that we've got a few more years of Tsunoda before he heads off to open Chez Yuki. His on-track driving is ruthless and gives no slack to an opponent, regardless of who they are!
11 - Esteban Ocon
2021 was a year for the record books for Esteban. His best season by points since 2017 and a race win to cap it off. Even against the shining light of Fernando Alonso, he stood out by his own achievements on the track. Despite that win in Hungary, I still think that Saudi Arabia was his best drive of the season. Facing tough competition on a new track, he proved that he could go toe-to-toe with the top of the leaderboard boys and make it count when it mattered. Even if Bottas did pip him to the line.
10 - Daniel Ricciardo
2021 I think we can forgive. But the pressure mounting on Danny Ric for a strong performance grows. The question of him being past his best still stands. 2021 saw him get quite conclusively dominated by Lando Norris as he struggled to get to grips with the car. Something wasn't right with its natural setup and worked against his driving style. All that has heaped the pressure onto this season, giving us some high expectations for Ricciardo's 2022 season.
9 - Pierre Gasly
With a highly competitive season ahead of him, Gasly is set to perform well with the capable seeming AT03 but combined with the densely packed grid that's been shuffled up by the new specifications. This could be Pierre's best season to prove himself. Regardless of his final points tally, his efforts on track this year are going to cement his name on the grid for a few more years. That or he'll be quietly shuffled off to Formula E when the next entrant signs a four-year contract with Alpine.
8 - Fernando Alonso
Fernando is a tricky one to place this season. With the growing tide of "El Plan," there's a real chance of the oldest driver on the grid putting on a decent show this season. If the Alpine is a competitive car, then we could see Alonso score even higher than eighth place.
7 - Charles Leclerc
I might have ranked Ferrari as a high scoring team this season, but, as I've hinted at already, the grid is likely to be very densely packed at its top end. If you aren't on it all the way through the season, it won't take much to drop down the order. Especially if you have the rotten luck that Charles Leclerc seems to have, Monaco last year. Even one race where we see that luck rear its head could see Charles tumble down the ranking.
6 - Sergio Perez
He was close to Verstappen in 2021, but I don't think he'll be able to repeat that feat this year. Max will be fired up to chase down a second world title, he'll be battling the new regulations. While we've seen some improvement in the way that Red Bull handles its second drivers, I don't know how well that'll carry on into the new season. Hopefully, they won't treat Checo terribly as he is so undeserving of that. I'll wait with bated breath.
5 - Lando Norris
2021 was Lando's best season to date. That is undeniable. Peppered with podiums and mega points finishes, he has proved his worth without a shadow of a doubt. The performances tailed off a little as car development slowed back in Woking, efforts being shifted to this season's car. Regardless, Lando was continually at the pointy end of things. More so, he's retained the sparkling personality that has so strongly endeared him to fans. In a world where drivers are as much walking talking billboards, Lando, above many others, is a beacon of joy and individualism. My hopes for him in this new season and era are high. Very high indeed. If the McLaren is a good car, I reckon we'll see a lot of podium finishes and hopefully that elusive win. Think of this 5th place prediction as very conservative.
4 - Max Verstappen
Last year's world champion coming fourth? How can I predict this with a straight face? I just don't think the Red Bull is going to be quite there. At least at the beginning of the season. In a battle to do better, we could see Max overdriving at the underdeveloped car and losing out from it. This will give him a mountain to climb in the latter half of the season. That and he'll be facing Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton, throwing everything, including the kitchen sink from the Brackley factory, at the Dutchman. If, however, Adrian Newey has worked wonders with his pencil and paper, I wouldn't be surprised to see Max make a big run for a new championship. But I have a hunch that that's a big if.
3 - Lewis Hamilton
I'm not saying Lewis' career is over with this prediction. Far from it. He's not gone anywhere, so it's moot to say "he's back". But 2021 has proven to be a big hiccup for the seven-time world champion. Things didn't go his way, things were disrupted, and there were a lot of decisions that really shouldn't have panned out the way they did. Throughout 2021 his driving improved race after race. Towards the end of the season, he was performing at a nigh-on untouchable level. Max Verstappen was on the raggedy edge of his performance envelope trying to come close to a Lewis Hamilton that seemed like he still had another 2% to push out. There was always another level Lewis could reach to. But, with the new regulations, coupled with the pressure of a comeback of sorts, plus young upstart George Russell in the other half of the garage gunning to hit the ground running be too much for him to take on this season and still mount a run for the top of the tables? The odds seem stacked against him. But that means nothing when it comes to his performances. Watch this space.
2 - George Russell
I really wouldn't be surprised if George manages to pip Lewis to P2 in the standings. We know he's ruthlessly fast, and once that helmet is on, he doesn't care for who's in the car next to him. Sakhir 2020 proved that pretty much conclusively. In qualifying, he pushed Valtteri Bottas to the extremes. However, George was hampered by a run plan that didn't give him a final retort. On Sunday, despite being in a pair of boots too small, he dominated the proceedings in a car that he didn't fit in. This was a very early glimpse of what was to come. 2021 gave us an even bigger appetiser. Points and a podium. Where that Spa qualifying lap came from is still beyond me. Now put all of that into a car that he won't be actively fighting every lap of the way? George could be set for a ballistic first season with the band from Brackley.
1 - Carlos Sainz
Carlos' fate has been a tumultuous one. Bounced from race seat to race seat by decisions out of his hands, he's rarely had the chance to sink his teeth into a seat and make something of it. McLaren looked like it was going to be a good seat, only to again be hounded from it by Danny Ric. Now with the Scuderia, and with talks ongoing at the time of writing, he's looking to have found a good home for a few more seasons. Bad news if you're Mick Schumacher, who's itching for a better Ferrari seat than the Haas. Ferrari could well have a competitive car this season. It's good enough to put it at the fighting end of the grid week after week. 2021 gave us a brilliant show of Sainz Jr's on track antics and abilities. Podiums abounded, blinding qualifying laps astounded. Mix those in with a car that can, and this could be Carlos' best chance at bagging a championship.
Adding this finishing paragraph to the article after the testing in Bahrain fills me with both dread and excitement. Dread that again. I will have made a fool of myself with my predictions and the excitement of what is to come. Bahrain testing is now over, and this weekend (at the time of writing), we will have the opening race of the season. Will I have massively underestimated the returning Kevin Magnussen in that Haas? Have I over-stoked the Ferrari hype train this season? We'll only find out when the chequered flag falls at about 5pm on the 20th of November in Abu Dhabi, wrapping up another (hopefully) brilliantly bonkers season of Formula One.
Recipes
Written by Jesse Billington
Jesse is a freelance motorsport photojournalist covering most things with wheels from F1 to classic motor racing. He also hosts The Undercut Podcast.
Social media handles: Jesse On Cars - YouTube, Instagram and Twitter.
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